ISTANBUL – Syrian military advances in northwest Syria are placing Turkish troops within the firing line and threaten Ankara’s hopes of stopping a brand new wave of refugees on its southern border.
The offensive round Idlib, the final main insurgent stronghold in Syria, has already compelled tens of hundreds of civilians to flee in the direction of Turkey.
It has additionally reduce off a Turkish navy put up deep inside Syria because the deal to restrict combating within the area, which the Turkish troops have been speculated to be monitoring, collapses.
The breakdown of that deal could be a major blow to President Tayyip Erdogan, who has steered Turkey nearer to Russia in recent times however seems unable to rein again Moscow’s help for the Syrian military offensive.
Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed in 2017 to arrange 4 “de-escalation zones” to stem combating between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and rebels, however the Syrian military has retaken three of these areas and is now advancing within the fourth.
It has entered the city of Khan Sheikhoun, successfully slicing off Turkish troops at a navy put up close to the city of Morek, 70 km (45 miles) inside Syria. A Turkish convoy despatched to resupply the Morek put up was halted on Monday by an air strike.
“The scenario there’s of vital sensitivity,” Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin stated after a cupboard assembly on Wednesday.
Turkey, which helps some Syrian insurgent factions, has troops deployed at 12 navy statement posts across the Idlib area underneath the 2017 take care of Moscow and Tehran, which again Assad’s authorities.
That settlement, and a Turkey-Russia accord final 12 months geared toward lowering the facility of jihadist fighters within the Idlib area, has at greatest had solely a restricted affect.
Turkey complained that Syrian and Russia air strikes within the area continued, whereas Moscow grew more and more impatient over what it noticed as Ankara’s failure to cease jihadists from the previous Nusra Entrance taking on a lot of Idlib.
Russia additionally says the fighters in Idlib and Hama provinces threatened its Hmeymim air base, lower than 40 km to the west.
CIVILIANS FLEE
Turkey insists it has no plans to desert or transfer any of the navy posts it arrange in Idlib, regardless of Monday’s air strike and the combating round Morek.
“All statement posts will proceed operations the place they’re situated proper now,” Kalin stated, including that agreements to halt navy operations round Idlib have to be revered.
“In any other case, each the violation of this settlement and the ensuing humanitarian drama will likely be inevitable.”
The United Nations says greater than 500,000 folks have been uprooted because the Syrian military started its offensive in late April, most of them escaping deeper into the insurgent bastion and in the direction of the border.
Turkey, which opened its border at the beginning of the Syrian battle in 2011 and now hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, is set to keep away from one other inflow of civilians – or fighters.
It has constructed a wall alongside the 800 km Syrian border and says it has recognized areas inside Syria to shelter a doable wave of individuals fleeing the combating in Idlib.
“If there’s this sort of motion to our borders we are going to take motion and create shelters the place we’re going to accommodate displaced folks exterior our borders,” Inside Minister Suleyman Soylu stated this week.
He didn’t specify whether or not the camps could be in Idlib province or Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria across the cities of Azaz, Al-Bab and Jarablus.
STAYING PUT?
Turkey’s willpower to face by all 12 of its navy posts in Idlib was reiterated this week by the federal government, and a senior safety official instructed Reuters Ankara was standing by its troops on the bottom.
“Whichever statement put up wants it, help is offered, the official stated.
Nonetheless, that can show more and more difficult for Turkey until there’s a change in fact by Moscow or Damascus, which has repeatedly stated it’s dedicated to recapturing each inch of Syrian territory.
“The Turkish statement posts are usually not constituted to defend themselves and no less than certainly one of them has been encircled by Syrian regime forces,” stated Ozgur Unluhisarcikli from the German Marshall Fund. “When the danger of battle rises an excessive amount of, Turkey will in all probability retreat.”
Erdogan will communicate to Putin about Idlib as quickly as doable, Kalin instructed reporters after the cupboard assembly.
Simply final month, Turkish ties with Russia appeared stronger than ever as Erdogan took supply of superior S-400 Russian missile defence gear – regardless of a menace of U.S. sanctions and robust lobbying by Washington to stall the deal.
Six weeks later, Moscow and Ankara’s variations over northwest Syria seem irreconcilable and Turkey’s Idlib technique is in peril.
“The tip state is obvious,” stated Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former Turkish diplomat.
Stress on the southernmost Turkish statement posts – these that are the furthest inside Syria – would unfold to different Turkish positions because the Syrian military offensive continues, and Turkey would probably pull some troops again.
“It was a matter of time,” Ulgen stated. “To me the shock is that it occurred so quickly after the S-400 episode. It proves how little leverage Turkey has gained with Russia.”